Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management

Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management

Keith Beven, Jim Hall


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This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.

  • Introduction:
    • Flood Risk Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Jim W Hall)
    • Use of Models in Flood Risk Management (Keith Beven)
  • Theoretical Perspectives:
    • A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis (Keith Beven)
    • Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty (R E Chandler)
    • Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Jonathan Rougier)
    • The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Keith Beven)
  • Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis:
    • Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs (R E Chandler, V S Isham, P J Northrop, H S Wheater, C J Onof and N A Leith)
    • Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis (Thomas R Kjeldsen, Rob Lamb and Sarka D Blazkova)
    • Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values (C Keef)
    • Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling (Paul D Bates, Florian Pappenberger and Renata J Romanowicz)
    • Flood Defence Reliability Analysis (Pieter van Gelder and Han Vrijling)
    • Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas (Slobodan Djordjević, Zoran Vojinović, Richard Dawson and Dragan A Savić)
    • The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments (John Chatterton, Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Sally Priest)
    • Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary (Jim W Hall, Hamish Harvey and Owen Tarrant)
  • Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting:
    • Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting (Albrecht H Weerts, Dong-Jun Seo, Micha Werner and John Schaake)
    • A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Peter C Young, Renata J Romanowicz and Keith Beven)
    • Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications (Kevin Sene, Albrecht H Weerts, Keith Beven, Robert J Moore, Chris Whitlow, Stefan Laeger and Richard Cross)
    • Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the US National Weather Service (Robert Hartman and John Schaake)
    • Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft FEWS Forecasting System (Micha Werner, Paolo Reggiani and Albrecht H Weerts)
    • Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting (Kevin Horsburgh and Jonathan Flowerdew)
  • Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk:
    • Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk (Cíntia B Uvo and Robin T Clarke)
    • Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk (Robert L Wilby, Hayley J Fowler and Bill Donovan)
    • Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change (Stewart W Franks)
  • Communicating Uncertainties:
    • Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science (Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander and David Leedal)

Readership: Hydrologists, civil engineers, meteorologists, flood risk managers, environmental scientists, hydraulic engineers and consultants.